Prediction Markets at Google

Is it a good idea to encourage ALL employees to trade in these markets? Should insiders and/or highly uninformed people be allowed to trade? Do they help or hurt the market?

It's good to make prediction markets optional, but provide encouragement. Some people do it for fun and entertainment, while others might be more interested in recognition and in some cases rewards. I think if employees were forced to trade in the markets they may become less accurate/reliable because interest would be lowered and time and energy put into the decision making would be less; trades would be careless, not thought through.

It's interesting the people running projects can make their own predictions about when a project will finish. However, from my experience, even if you are an insider (it's your project), you still don't know when you might hit a road block. Isn't that the problem? Plus for a corporate prediction market, isn't everyone kind of an insider for parts of the market (obviously some more than others).

So, yes, I think highly informed individuals (insiders) should be allowed to trade. They may have an advantage against other traders but I don't think it will skew the results needed from the prediction markets. "Collective intelligence" comes into play and the knowledge of the group is more accurate than that of the most intelligent person in that group.